Predicting Impacts of Sea Level Rise for Cultural and Natural Resources in Five National Park Units on the Island of Hawai‘i

Reports were scanned in black and white at a resolution of 600 dots per inch and were converted to text using Adobe Paper Capture Plug-in.Various climate change models predict that global sea levels will rise up to 1.9 m by 2100. Sea level rise and changes in storm run up during large surf events will affect nearshore habitats, cultural resources, water resources and infra-structure worldwide. Tide gauges on the island of Hawaii have shown an average sea level rise of 3.5 mm/yr over recent decades and future accelerated rates are expected. The Ala Kahakai National Historic Trail includes an approximately 280 km portion of prehistoric trail on or parallel to the Hawai'i Island shoreline and passes through numerous significant cultural and biological resources including resources within four national parks (Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Pu'ukohola Heiau National Historical Site, Pu'uhonua O Honaunau National Historical Park, and Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park), all of which will be impacted by sea level rise. Incorporating detailed elevation data and sea level rise predictions in the early stages of planning could lessen impacts and aid in long term management of the trail. In this project, investigators at University of California, Berkeley collaborated with National Park Service staff to model the effects of future sea level rise on present cultural and natural resources within the Ala Kahakai National Historic Trail corridor. Specifically, LiDAR and other existing spatial data were used to create high resolution Digital Elevation Models. Then a Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to create visualizations of resource inundation likely to occur by the year 2100 using a range of more conservative to more extreme sea-level rise predictions. Spatial analysis was also used to determine areas where particular habitats such as anchialine pools, fishponds, and wetlands will most likely occur in 2100 so that these future habitats can be protected. The inundation models are conservative because they do not include projections of wave run-up during storms, erosion, or groundwater elevations above sea level. Additionally, comparisons of LiDAR points to National Geodetic Survey Benchmarks indicates LiDAR elevations are offset by an average of + 0.25 m. Correction of this error in DEMs resulted in greater inundation at each sea level rise scenario compared to the models without the correction. Final sea level rise scenarios incorporate corrections for the offset. Detailed elevation data and model results for the NPS units are provided in a GIS geodatabase format for trail planning, park management and resource protection within the ALKA corridor.We are grateful to Rick Gmirkin, Aric Arakaki, Sallie Beavers, Nancy Erger, Darcy Hu, and others for their support. We are also grateful to Maggi Kelly, Chip Fletcher’s Lab group, Kirk Waters, and Maria Caffrey for their comments on the project and manuscript. Finally, Ed Carlson, John Marra, and Doug Harper generously conducted and shared data from surveys of National Geodetic Survey benchmarks. This project is a Californian Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Project of the National Park Service and the University of California Regents at Berkeley (Task Agreement J8C07100018). The funding sources had no role in the study design, collection, analysis and interpretation of data

In and out of Madagascar : dispersal to peripheral islands, insular speciation and diversification of Indian Ocean daisy trees (Psiadia, Asteraceae)

This study was supported by the European Union’s HOTSPOTS Training Network (MEST-2005-020561)Madagascar is surrounded by archipelagos varying widely in origin, age and structure. Although small and geologically young, these archipelagos have accumulated disproportionate numbers of unique lineages in comparison to Madagascar, highlighting the role of waif-dispersal and rapid in situ diversification processes in generating endemic biodiversity. We reconstruct the evolutionary and biogeographical history of the genus Psiadia (Asteraceae), a plant genus with near equal numbers of species in Madagascar and surrounding islands. Analyzing patterns and processes of diversification, we explain species accumulation on peripheral islands and aim to offer new insights on the origin and potential causes for diversification in the Madagascar and Indian Ocean Islands biodiversity hotspot. Our results provide support for an African origin of the group, with strong support for non-monophyly. Colonization of the Mascarenes took place by two evolutionary distinct lineages from Madagascar, via two independent dispersal events, each unique for their spatial and temporal properties. Significant shifts in diversification rate followed regional expansion, resulting in co-occurring and phenotypically convergent species on high-elevation volcanic slopes. Like other endemic island lineages, Psiadia have been highly successful in dispersing to and radiating on isolated oceanic islands, typified by high habitat diversity and dynamic ecosystems fuelled by continued geological activity. Results stress the important biogeographical role for Rodrigues in serving as an outlying stepping stone from which regional colonization took place. We discuss how isolated volcanic islands contribute to regional diversity by generating substantial numbers of endemic species on short temporal scales. Factors pertaining to the mode and tempo of archipelago formation and its geographical isolation strongly govern evolutionary pathways available for species diversification, and the potential for successful diversification of dispersed lineages, therefore, appears highly dependent on the timing of arrival, as habitat and resource properties change dramatically over the course of oceanic island evolution.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Event review: Introduction to Paleoamerican Lithic Technology at the University of Oregon Archaeological Field School, Rimrock Draw Rockshelter, Oregon, U.S.A.

Introduction to Paleoamerican Lithic Technology at the University of Oregon Archaeological Field School

Polytene chromosomes as indicators of phylogeny in several species groups of Drosophila

BACKGROUND: Polytene chromosome banding patterns have long been used by Drosophila evolutionists to infer degree of relatedness among taxa. Recently, nucleotide sequences have preempted this traditional method. We place the classical Drosophila evolutionary biology tools of polytene chromosome inversion analysis in a phylogenetic context and assess their utility in comparison to nucleotide sequences. RESULTS: A simultaneous analysis framework was used to examine the congruence of the chromosomal inversion data with more recent DNA sequence data in four Drosophila species groups – the melanogaster, virilis, repleta, and picture wing. Inversions and nucleotides were highly congruent with one another based on incongruence length difference and partitioned Bremer support values. Inversion phylogenies were less resolved because of fewer numbers of characters. Partitioned Bremer supports, corrected for the number of characters in each matrix, were higher for inversion matrices. CONCLUSIONS: Polytene chromosome data are highly congruent with DNA sequence data and, when placed in a simultaneous analysis framework, are shown to be more information rich than nucleotide data

An empirical method that separates irreversible stem radial growth from bark water content changes in trees : theory and case studies

Substantial uncertainty surrounds our knowledge of tree stem growth, with some of the most basic questions, such as when stem radial growth occurs through the daily cycle, still unanswered. We employed high-resolution point dendrometers, sap flow sensors, and developed theory and statistical approaches, to devise a novel method separating irreversible radial growth from elastic tension-driven and elastic osmotically driven changes in bark water content. We tested this method using data from five case study species. Experimental manipulations, namely a field irrigation experiment on Scots pine and a stem girdling experiment on red forest gum trees, were used to validate the theory. Time courses of stem radial growth following irrigation and stem girdling were consistent with a-priori predictions. Patterns of stem radial growth varied across case studies, with growth occurring during the day and/or night, consistent with the available literature. Importantly, our approach provides a valuable alternative to existing methods, as it can be approximated by a simple empirical interpolation routine that derives irreversible radial growth using standard regression techniques. Our novel method provides an improved understanding of the relative source-sink carbon dynamics of tree stems at a sub-daily time scale.Peer reviewe

The interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining migration decisions in brown trout (Salmo trutta): An experimental study

Many species are capable of facultative migration, but the relative roles of extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in generating diverse migratory tactics remain unclear. Here we explore the proximate drivers of facultative migration in brown trout in an experimental laboratory setting. The effects of reduced food, as a putative environmental cue, were examined in two populations: one that exhibits high rates of anadromy (sea-migration) in nature, and one that does not exhibit anadromy in nature. Juveniles derived from wild-caught parents were reared for two years under four environmental treatments: low food in years 1 and 2 (Low-Low); high food in years 1 and 2 (High-High), low food in year 1 and high in year 2 (Low-High), and vice versa (High-Low). Food restriction had a significant effect on migratory tactics, with the frequency of smolts (juveniles choosing migration) highest in the Low-Low treatment in both populations. No individuals became smolts in the High-High treatment, and intermediate smolting rates were observed in the Low-High and High-Low treatments. Higher overall smolting rates in the naturally anadromous population suggested an inherited component to anadromy/migration decisions, but both populations showed variability in migratory tactics. Importantly, some fish from the naturally non-anadromous population became smolts in the experiment, implying the capacity for migration was lying ‘dormant’, but they exhibited lower hypo-osmoregulatory function than smolts from the naturally anadromous population. Tactic frequencies in the naturally anadromous population were more affected by food in the 2nd year, while food in the 1st year appeared more important for the naturally non-anadromous population. Migratory tactics were also related to sex, but underpinned in both sexes by growth in key periods, size and energetic state. Collectively these results reveal how migration decisions are shaped by a complex interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors, informing our ability to predict how facultatively migratory populations will respond to environmental change

Incubation period of COVID-19: a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of observational research

Objectives: The aim of this study was to conduct a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of estimates of the incubation period of COVID-19.Design: Rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of observational research.Setting: International studies on incubation period of COVID-19.Participants: Searches were carried out in PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase, Cochrane Library as well as the preprint servers MedRxiv and BioRxiv. Studies were selected for meta-analysis if they reported either the parameters and CIs of the distributions fit to the data, or sufficient information to facilitate calculation of those values. After initial eligibility screening, 24 studies were selected for initial review, nine of these were shortlisted for meta-analysis. Final estimates are from meta-analysis of eight studies.Primary outcome measures: Parameters of a lognormal distribution of incubation periods.Results: The incubation period distribution may be modelled with a lognormal distribution with pooled mu and sigma parameters (95% CIs) of 1.63 (95% CI 1.51 to 1.75) and 0.50 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.55), respectively. The corresponding mean (95% CIs) was 5.8 (95% CI 5.0 to 6.7) days. It should be noted that uncertainty increases towards the tail of the distribution: the pooled parameter estimates (95% CIs) resulted in a median incubation period of 5.1 (95% CI 4.5 to 5.8) days, whereas the 95th percentile was 11.7 (95% CI 9.7 to 14.2) days.Conclusions: The choice of which parameter values are adopted will depend on how the information is used, the associated risks and the perceived consequences of decisions to be taken. These recommendations will need to be revisited once further relevant information becomes available. Accordingly, we present an R Shiny app that facilitates updating these estimates as new data become available

Clinical course, therapeutic responses and outcomes in relapsing MOG antibody-associated demyelination.

Abstract OBJECTIVE: We characterised the clinical course, treatment and outcomes in 59 patients with relapsing myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) antibody-associated demyelination. METHODS: We evaluated clinical phenotypes, annualised relapse rates (ARR) prior and on immunotherapy and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), in 218 demyelinating episodes from 33 paediatric and 26 adult patients. RESULTS: The most common initial presentation in the cohort was optic neuritis (ON) in 54% (bilateral (BON) 32%, unilateral (UON) 22%), followed by acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) (20%), which occurred exclusively in children. ON was the dominant phenotype (UON 35%, BON 19%) of all clinical episodes. 109/226 (48%) MRIs had no brain lesions. Patients were steroid responsive, but 70% of episodes treated with oral prednisone relapsed, particularly at doses <10\u2009mg daily or within 2 months of cessation. Immunotherapy, including maintenance prednisone (P=0.0004), intravenous immunoglobulin, rituximab and mycophenolate, all reduced median ARRs on-treatment. Treatment failure rates were lower in patients on maintenance steroids (5%) compared with non-steroidal maintenance immunotherapy (38%) (P=0.016). 58% of patients experienced residual disability (average follow-up 61 months, visual loss in 24%). Patients with ON were less likely to have sustained disability defined by a final EDSS of 652 (OR 0.15, P=0.032), while those who had any myelitis were more likely to have sustained residual deficits (OR 3.56, P=0.077). CONCLUSION: Relapsing MOG antibody-associated demyelination is strongly associated with ON across all age groups and ADEM in children. Patients are highly responsive to steroids, but vulnerable to relapse on steroid reduction and cessation

Food and temperature stressors have opposing effects in determining flexible migration decisions in brown trout (Salmo trutta)

With rapid global change, organisms in natural systems are exposed to a multitude of stressors that likely co‐occur, with uncertain impacts. We explored individual and cumulative effects of co‐occurring environmental stressors on the striking, yet poorly understood, phenomenon of facultative migration. We reared offspring of a brown trout population that naturally demonstrates facultative anadromy (sea migration), under different environmental stressor treatments and measured life history responses in terms of migratory tactics and freshwater maturation rates. Juvenile fish were exposed to reduced food availability, temperatures elevated to 1.8°C above natural conditions or both treatments in combination over 18 months of experimental tank rearing. When considered in isolation, reduced food had negative effects on the size, mass and condition of fish across the experiment. We detected variable effects of warm temperatures (negative effects on size and mass, but positive effect on lipids). When combined with food restriction, temperature effects on these traits were less pronounced, implying antagonistic stressor effects on morphological traits. Stressors combined additively, but had opposing effects on life history tactics: migration increased and maturation rates decreased under low food conditions, whereas the opposite occurred in the warm temperature treatment. Not all fish had expressed maturation or migration tactics by the end of the study, and the frequency of these ‘unassigned’ fish was higher in food deprivation treatments, but lower in warm treatments. Fish showing migration tactics were smaller and in poorer condition than fish showing maturation tactics, but were similar in size to unassigned fish. We further detected effects of food restriction on hypo‐osmoregulatory function of migrants that may influence the fitness benefits of the migratory tactic at sea. We also highlight that responses to multiple stressors may vary depending on the response considered. Collectively, our results indicate contrasting effects of environmental stressors on life history trajectories in a facultatively migratory species